Warren, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

912
FXUS63 KDTX 011906
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
306 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- No precipitation through the weekend.
- Warming temperature trend leading into the 80s by Friday, lasting
through Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A strong ridge axis now resides over the Great Lakes and well
through Ontario with SE MI well entrenched under 586dam heights at
500mb. This ensures another day of dry weather albeit cooler than
past days given the influence of northeast to east surface flow.
Daytime highs remain capped in the low 70s for most location, with
cooler highs found along the Huron lakeshore. Mid to upper level
cloud cover fills in tonight and holds through tomorrow afternoon as
westerly upper-level flow whisks clouds from the moisture conveyer
belt that resides through the the entirety of the plains, as observed
on mimic-tpw satellite imagery. Cooler overnight with lows in the
40s.
The prominent ridge axis will break down tomorrow as multiple
shortwave features fill in across the western Canadian provinces and
upper plains. This will allow the anomalously warm air across the
Plains to fold over into the Great Lakes, bringing warmer than
normal temperatures starting Friday and lasting through the weekend.
The prominent 1033mb high pressure over Quebec will drop south into
New England and western Atlantic which will reinforce southwest flow
bringing 850mb temperatures of 13-15C in across the Great Lakes.
Temperature highs rise into the 80s Fri - Mon with overnight lows in
the 50s.
Amplification of a second upper-level ridge will then commence
through the weekend as an upper-level trough carves through the
western CONUS Friday. This setup will continue to promote stable
conditions bringing the continuation of dry weather along with many
days that exhibit extended periods of sunshine. The next chance for
any precipitation will enter Tuesday as the upper-level trough
expands across the Rockies. This would be favorable for cyclogenesis
and development of low pressure to pull through the Midwest,
eventually drawing a cold front through the Great Lakes.
&&
.MARINE...
Large high pressure over Eastern Canada will sink south into
southern New England tomorrow. This will allow winds to veer around
to the south tomorrow and then southwest on Friday, which will
continue through the weekend. Upper level riding ridging aloft will
keep the airmass warm and dry, which will lead to near lake surface
stability, keeping wind speeds predominately below 20 knots through
the weekend. A cold front arriving on Monday will bring a chance of
showers, along with a shift in wind direction to the northwest by
Tuesday. A further injection of cold air is possible Tuesday night
and Wednesday, which may support strong northerly winds (~30 knots)
and large waves over southern Lake Huron basin.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
AVIATION...
Surface high pressure will build from the James Bay region today to
southern Quebec and the Northeastern United States by Thursday
morning. Cold drainage flow off the high is expected to keep a
easterly wind direction throughout the period. The wind should be
enough to keep conditions slightly mixed throughout the night.
Strong static stability will remain in place from 1.5 to 13.0 kft.
For DTW/D21 Convection... Thunderstorms will not occur through the
forecast period.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......sf
AVIATION.....CB
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NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion