Waterloo, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

040
FXUS63 KOAX 151038
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
538 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Additional rounds of showers and storms are expected through
  the week. A few strong storms are possible Tuesday afternoon,
  with pockets of heavy rain at times through the end of the
  week.
- Temperatures remain warmer than normal through Tuesday, but
  highs return to the mid 70s for Wednesday through Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Today through Tuesday...
Showers and storms continued to fester over the forecast area last
night, before greatly diminishing in coverage and intensity around
midnight. By 2 AM, temperatures had dipped into the low to mid 60s.
Isolated showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will continue
to be possible through the morning hours before the better forcing
shifts to our east this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will
remain warm today and Tuesday, topping out in the mid to upper 80s,
as southerly flow lingers over the region.
Tuesday Evening and Beyond...
Models continue to depict a trough dropping out of the northern
intermountain region, into the northern Plains by mid week,
eventually forming a closed low. Multiple surges from vort maxes
around this low will bring additional chances for precipitation this
week. Generally dry weather is expected to persist through the
majority of the day Tuesday, outside of a slight chance (15-20%) for
subtle shortwave energy triggering a shower or two along the fringes
of our forecast area. Rain chances increase Tuesday evening and into
the overnight hours (30-60%) as the lead vort max approaches from
the west. While there is a chance for some of these storms to remain
strong to severe, with gusty winds and large hail, as they move into
eastern Nebraska, current guidance suggests the better chance for
severe storms will be just to our west, where the stronger shear and
forcing align with peak daytime heating.
An additional surge of moisture pushes into the Central Plains
Wednesday, as another strong vort max dances into the region. Expect
a gloomy day, with widespread showers and storms (60-80%). Locally
heavy rainfall amounts may be possible. The closed low looks to take
its sweet time moving through the central plains, late next week.
Expect off and on rain chances to persist Thursday (40-60%) and
Friday (30-50%).
Temperatures will dip closer to normal by Wednesday, ranging from
the 70s in the west to low 80s in southwest Iowa. Expect even cooler
temps, in the low to mid 70s, to filter in Thursday through next
weekend, as the upper low continues to churn over the region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A few isolated
showers and thunderstorms could fester through the morning hours,
but they should remain well to the south and east of the TAF
sites, over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Winds will
remain out of the south around 5 to 15 mph.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion