Wave Crest, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

281
FXUS61 KOKX 231903
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
303 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure will shift farther out into the Atlantic
through tonight while a cold front approaches from the north.
The front will settle over or just south of the area late
tonight into Wednesday night. The front will lift north of the
area Wednesday night into Thursday as weak low pressure passes
well to the west. A trailing cold front will remain nearby from
Friday into Saturday. A second cold front will move across on
Sunday, followed by high pressure for Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
At 2 PM clouds were still hanging on attm NW of NYC, with
mostly sunny skies across parts of the NYC metro area, Long
Island and SE CT. Cu building up invof a weak pre-frontal trough
over ern PA, which any showers well to the west over the
Susquehanna River valley. Latest CAM`s indicate convective
initiation by about 20Z impacting the interior northern areas at
first through sunset. After that chances for showers/tstms
increase in most areas from the NYC metro area north/west after
00Z, then spread farther east through the night, with some
enhancement out east as the front dropping from the north meets
up with surge of warm/moist advection from the S-SW.
Best chances for tstms will be from NYC north/west, and a few
of these may produce gusty winds mainly across interior northern
NJ. Heavy downpours are also possible with this activity,
mainly well inland across Orange/Putnam NY, N Fairfield/N New
Haven in CT through this evening, then possibly across parts of
SE CT and the forks of Long Island late tonight. Patchy fog
could also develop especially after midnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front should sag just south of the area on Wed and
remain nearly stationary into Wed evening, then lift northward
again as a warm front later Wed night as weak low pressure
passes W of the Appalachians. Chances for showers and possibly
a tstm continue into daytime Wed, then more widespread
shower/tstm activity expected for Wed night into Thu as the
front lifts northward late Wed night into Thu morning, then Thu
afternoon as another cold front approaches.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NBM was followed with no changes.
Key Points:
* A slow moving area of low pressure, and cold front, is expected to
  impact the region Friday and Saturday. A second cold front follows
  on Sunday.
* Chances of showers persist through the weekend.
* Drier conditions expected Sunday into the first part of next week
  as high pressure builds back into the region.
* Daytime temperatures will be near to slightly above normal
  Friday through Monday, with highs in the 70s. Nighttime lows
  will be above normal Friday night and Saturday night, and
  return to more normal levels Sunday night and Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Offshore high pressure gives way to a pre-frontal trough late
this afternoon and tonight. A cold front from the north moves
into the region late tonight and becomes stationary across the
area on Wednesday.
Mainly VFR through late in the day, MVFR will be possible with
any showers and thunderstorms late in the day and into tonight.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms late afternoon into the
evening, mainly to the north of the NYC and LI terminals.
SW-S winds 10 kt or less into this evening. A few gusts of
15-18kt are possible at the coastal terminals. Winds will then
go light and variable late tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Thunderstorms may be more isolated and northwest of the NYC
metro this evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday through Saturday: Periods of MVFR with showers
possible. Isold tstms possible at times.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA continues on the ocean waters given long period swells up to
5 ft associated with distant Hurricane Gabrielle. These elevated
seas should persist into at least Wed afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Showers/tstms ahead of a cold front could produce downpours with
brief nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage locales,
mainly across interior portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and
SW Connecticut into this evening, also possibly across SE CT and
the forks of Long Island late tonight. Antecedent conditions
have been notably dry though, so the risk for flash flooding is
low.
More widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches is likely from late Wed
afternoon into Thu night. This does not appear to warrant flood
concerns more than the possibility of localized minor issues.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk continues into Wed as long period 4-5
ft SE swell continues from distant Hurricane Gabrielle. The risk
should lower to moderate on Thu as ocean seas subside.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/BG
HYDROLOGY...BC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BC

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion