Wayzata, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

267
FXUS63 KMPX 140833
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
333 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout
  the week.
- Warm and humid conditions continue through Wednesday, then
  cooling off to near normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
It`s a mostly clear morning at the moment, but as noted in the
aviation discussion from earlier, a bank of low clouds in
central WI is migrating west and is approaching Eau Claire and
vicinity. There are also patches of low clouds developing in
central MN, but are mostly obscured by higher clouds at the
moment. The development of low clouds should end just after
sunrise and the deck should rise and scatter through the mid
morning hours. Still, expecting high clouds to continue
streaming overhead through the day. Winds will turn southerly
today and bring the warm and humid airmass northward. Highs will
reach the mid to upper 80s.
An upper trough currently over the central Rockies will lift
north today and become slightly negatively tilted by this
evening. Thunderstorms will develop across the eastern Dakotas
this afternoon, possibly reaching western MN by early this
evening. Mid level lapse rates will be quite poor, limiting
instability. However, there will be a strong mid level jet
streak and good forcing before the upper trough lifts farther
north. There may be a stronger storm or two, but the likelier
bet is for activity over the Dakotas to weaken as it reaches
MN. Better lapse rates should be found a little farther east and
will help bolster instability. In addition, a persistent 30-40
kt LLJ across much of MN through the night and good moisture
transport with pwats near 1.75 inches, may support additional
disorganized thunderstorm clusters into Monday morning before
the jet streak exits to the north and ridging returns for Monday
and Tuesday.
Another upper trough will develop over the northern Plains
midweek and become cutoff while expanding eastward to the Upper
Midwest. Mid to late week looks unsettled with numerous chances
for showers and storms, likely peaking during diurnal heating. A
seasonably moist airmass with pockets of instability and weak
wind profiles may result in localized heavy rain totals,
possibly exceeding 2 inches. Temperatures will cool back to near
normal levels under the upper low
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Low clouds and patchy fog are expected to develop again
overnight across parts of central MN and western WI. Models are
in general agreement that IFR/LIFR cigs will develop in the
vicinity of AXN and STC around 10Z and linger through mid
morning. The other batch already established over central WI
will continue westward and reach EAU around 0930Z. Otherwise,
VFR conditions expected.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA pm. Wind S 5-10kts.
WED...MVFR/SHRA/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion