Wbamc, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

027
FXUS64 KEPZ 200458
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1058 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1024 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms areawide
   Friday afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of heavy
   rain and flooding.
- Drier and warmer weather this weekend into next week. Rain
   chances more limited to area mountains.
- Lowland highs in the lower nineties next week, warmer than
   normal for late September.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1024 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Very little, if any deviation from previous forecast packages with
pleasant weather conditions through the weekend as drier air filters
in from the northwest. For next week, uncertainty remains in the
forecast with uncertainty in run to run model guidance.
By this weekend, upper level high pressure to our south will begin
to move west and focus itself over Sonora and Baja. This
corresponding clockwise flow around said upper level high will
advect drier air across the Desert SW. Moisture values and rain
chances will slowly decrease starting on Saturday. Isolated
showers and storms will be possible on Saturday as residual
moisture remains in place, generally focusing over the high
terrain. DP temps will fall back into the 40s with PW values below
1.0" on Sunday. Mostly dry conditions are expected areawide,
though an isolated storm remains possible over the Gila and
Sacramento Mountains.
By early next week, ensemble guidance and their respected
deterministic solutions continue to diverge with each subsequent
run. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all lock in on closed low off the
coast of CA over the Pacific. Differences arise with regard to
positioning, track, timing, and associated moisture advection. Each
of the three models and their respected ensemble suites diverge in
their evolution as this closed off low moves onshore. The key thing
will be the amplitude and positioning of an upper level ridge
downstream of this upper low, and guidance just isn`t doing that
great of a job deciphering these features. That being said, with
such discrepancy between guidance, confidence remains low with
regard to the forecast next week. Daily chances of showers and
storms will remain at play each afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1024 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Shwrs and tstrms will clear the area, especially in and around
KELP will clear by 0500-0530Z with vicinity shwrs/tstrms through
06-07Z. Winds may still be breezy with vicinity shwrs/tstrms
through 07Z, becoming light and VRB after 07Z. CIGS will begin to
lift after activity diminishes with SCT to BKN 5-10kft and BKN to
OVC above that. Winds light and VRB through the morning with skies
slowly becoming BKN-OVC to SCT-BKN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
An upper level feature passing through the Desert Southwest today
will bring increased coverage of showers and storms. With ample
moisture, these storms will be efficient rainmakers capable of
burn scar flash flooding. After the ejection of the disturbance,
high pressure will begin to strengthen in Mexico along with drier
air moving in from the west. This will lead to drier conditions
through the weekend, with storms staying localized to the high
terrain. Uncertainty in storm coverage will dominate the forecast
into the next week due to model consistency departures. MinRH will
stay well above critical thresholds with generally light winds,
save for those produced by thunderstorm outflows. Venting will
hover around poor to fair thanks to the light winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  67  91  70  94 /  60   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            61  86  62  89 /  60  20  10  10
Las Cruces               61  86  62  90 /  50  10  10   0
Alamogordo               60  86  63  89 /  50  10  10   0
Cloudcroft               45  65  47  67 /  50  20  10   0
Truth or Consequences    59  85  62  88 /  50  10  10   0
Silver City              56  81  56  83 /  30  10   0  10
Deming                   62  90  62  92 /  40  10   0   0
Lordsburg                62  86  63  87 /  30  10   0  10
West El Paso Metro       67  89  69  92 /  60   0  10   0
Dell City                62  89  62  92 /  40  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             67  91  68  94 /  60  20  10   0
Loma Linda               61  81  62  85 /  60  10  10   0
Fabens                   66  89  66  93 /  50  10  10   0
Santa Teresa             64  87  64  90 /  60   0  10   0
White Sands HQ           63  87  66  90 /  50  10  10   0
Jornada Range            60  86  62  89 /  50  10  10   0
Hatch                    60  89  62  92 /  40  10  10   0
Columbus                 63  89  64  92 /  60   0   0   0
Orogrande                60  84  61  88 /  50  10  10   0
Mayhill                  50  77  53  79 /  40  30   0  10
Mescalero                49  77  51  79 /  50  20  10   0
Timberon                 49  74  51  76 /  50  20  10   0
Winston                  49  79  50  82 /  50  10  10  10
Hillsboro                57  86  59  89 /  40  10  10  10
Spaceport                57  84  59  88 /  50  10  10   0
Lake Roberts             50  81  50  83 /  40  10   0  10
Hurley                   57  84  58  86 /  30  10   0  10
Cliff                    59  87  59  89 /  30  10   0  10
Mule Creek               56  84  56  84 /  30  10   0  10
Faywood                  57  84  59  85 /  40  10   0  10
Animas                   62  87  64  89 /  40  10  10  10
Hachita                  61  86  62  88 /  50  10  10  10
Antelope Wells           61  87  63  89 /  50  10  10  10
Cloverdale               59  83  62  84 /  50  20  10  20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...38-Rogers

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion