Weatherby Lake, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

007
FXUS63 KEAX 151726
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures continue into Wednesday. Highs will
  range in the mid 80s to low 90s.
- A few chances for isolated (15-20%) on Monday
  afternoon/evening to scattered showers and storms (up to
  40%)on Tuesday afternoon/evening. No severe weather expected.
- An unsettled pattern arrives Wednesday with better chances for
  more widespread showers and storms through the end of the
  work-week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Our area remains sandwiched between mid to upper level ridging to
our east extending into Ontario and troughing to our west over the
Dakotas. A few weak returns can be seen on radar (as of 8Z) as a few
clusters of showers and storms continue to decay in the mostly
stable environment over our area. These showers and storms have not
produced much in the way of precip reaching the ground given the
layer of dry air near the surface. For the rest of today, high
pressure to our northeast remains prevalent which will keep our
winds mostly light and out of the south/southeast. Highs today will
mostly range in the upper 80s to low 90s. This afternoon into the
evening, a few hi-res models suggest the potential for isolated to
scattered showers and storms across the area forming along a
leftover outflow boundary in western MO from this mornings
convection and a weak surface boundary extending from IA into
central MO. Confidence remains fairly low at this time in precip as
the forcing appears to be weak and increased cloud cover could
impede the effects of diurnal heating. The LREF keeps roughly a 20-
30% chance for showers and storms which seems reasonable for now.
The HRRR has significantly reduced storm coverage since the 00Z run,
resembling the 00Z NAMNST which suggests decreasing confidence in
widespread convection. No severe is anticipated given the weak
forcing, limited instability (MUCAPE values below 1,000 J/kg), and
very low shear values (bulk shear values below 15 kts). For Tuesday,
spotty chances for showers and storms persist in the afternoon and
evening mainly north of I-70 with lingering H700 vort maxima
associated with the trough over the Dakotas. Better forcing appears
to be farther to the north over IA in closer proximity to the parent
trough. Speaking to temperatures, highs for Tuesday should be fairly
similar to today ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s.
As we approach mid-week, the mid to upper level troughing over the
Dakotas continues to track north as a secondary trough swings in
behind it over western NE. The mid to upper level ridge shifts
slightly to the east but our area still remains mostly under its
influence reflected in highs remaining above normal. Wednesday highs
are anticipated to range around the mid 80s to low 90s. For the
second half of this week, the mid to upper level ridge shifts
farther to the east and begins to weaken. The secondary trough sets
up just to our northwest and transitions to a closed low through the
start of the weekend. Multiple chances for precip arrive later this
week for our area as the pattern becomes more unsettled with several
shortwaves moving through the flow within the circulation of the
low. The good news is, lower mid-level heights in association with
the low and increased cloud coverage will result in temperatures
much closer to seasonal averages, around the upper 70s to low
80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
VFR conditions expected for TAF period with light winds out of the
southeast ranging from 5-7kts and will become Vrb04kt after 03z.
While there are widely scattered chances for showers to develop 00z-
03z most of the activity is expected to stay south area from KMHL-
KDMO-KGLY-KNVD. There are 15-20% chance for TAF sites but with lower
confidence removed the PROB30 from the TAF sites. Better chances
increase just beyond the 18z TAF time period for tomorrow at TAF
sites with 25-35% chance precipitation after 18z Tuesday.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...MAK

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion