Weogufka, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

372
FXUS64 KBMX 261128
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
628 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2025
- Cooler through the weekend. Back to above normal temperatures
   Sunday through Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through through Saturday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2025
A cool front is currently moving through Central Alabama with an
associated low pressure system. Based on radar the low has just
passed through the Shelby County Airport. Northerly flow can be
seen in the northwest, southeasterly flow in the northeast and
easterly flow in the southeast. We should see some lower clouds
build into the area predawn. This front will continue to slide
south- southeast through the day and be in the southeast around
noon and push south of the area by 3 to 5pm. Behind the front we
will see some wrap around convection across the area. Short term
models are in agreement with the concept but differ on the actual
coverage of the activity.
Based on conceptual patterns all depend on the amount of sunshine
we will see this morning as the clouds finally erode. The more
sunshine the north can see then more scattered showers and storms
will develop. Will continue with isolated to scattered afternoon
coverage for much of the area. Moisture remains confined across
the area tonight and we could see some lower visibilities again
through Saturday morning along with some linger light rain in the
far southeast. There will be some minimum chances at seeing a
shower or two in the east on Saturday afternoon, but with drought
conditions and the likelihood of any precipitation being light
will keep most areas below 15 percent. However, the day itself
should be cloudy for most locations.
16
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2025
After actually seeing some near normal temperatures, we will
unfortunately warm back up to above normal readings for Sunday and
Monday for much of the area along with generally dry conditions.
Can`t rule out a stray shower in the east on Monday, On Tuesday
we begin to see an increase in clouds across the east as easterly
flow begins to develop with any tropical mischief in the Atlantic.
We will continue to wait and see overall guidance of the systems
over the next few days. Based on the latest trends and
probabilistic guidance, I would suspect we begin to see and
increase in rain chances from Tuesday through possibly next
Friday. So look for an increase in chances over the next few runs
with right now appearing to be Wednesday night into Thursday.
Still alot of time for numerous factors to change, so stay alert
to changes through the period.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2025
Low stratus and areas of fog are expected to remain/develop
through 15z to 17z across the north as cool air advection behind
the front moves into the area. Mid-level to isolated pockets of
low clouds are throughout the southeast, not as widespread as the
north, but still impacting MGM and AUO. We should mix out between
15 and 17z. For the afternoon, we could see a shower or storm at
all sites, except TCL, so continued with Prob 30s from 21 to 01z.
Another round of low visibilities again by 6 to 9z.
16
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MinRH values will begin to drop by Saturday, as dry conditions are
expected to return to the region. Drought conditions may slightly
improve with recent rainfall, but will likely remain ongoing for
much of the region. Given the lack of rain anticipated the next
week, drought conditions may slowly begin to expand across the
region once again.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     83  61  84  61 /  40  10  10   0
Anniston    83  63  84  62 /  30  10  10   0
Birmingham  83  63  84  62 /  30  10  10   0
Tuscaloosa  85  63  86  62 /  20   0   0   0
Calera      86  63  86  62 /  30  10  10   0
Auburn      83  65  85  65 /  30  20  10   0
Montgomery  85  64  86  63 /  30  10  10   0
Troy        83  63  84  62 /  50  10  10   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion