Weston Priory, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

060
FXUS61 KBTV 281802
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
202 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
As a dry cold front pushes through the region today, general
drying conditions look to persist through at least midweek. The
trend of above normal temperatures will continue tomorrow and
Tuesday before cooler air arrives mid to late week, associated
with a another dry cold front. No precipitation is expected
this upcoming week as high pressure looks to dominate the area
through next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 159 PM EDT Sunday...A dry cold front will continue to push
through the area with only some scattered clouds to show for it.
Low-level moisture will continue to prevent any precipitation in the
near-term with relative humidities in the 30-50% range. Westerly
winds could gust up to 15 mph as the front moves through, though
winds should calm and turn more northwesterly by this evening.
Tonight, high pressure will build in from the midwest behind the
cold front with light surface winds, clear skies, and relatively
favorable conditions for radiative cooling. Lows should dip into the
low to mid 40s, with perhaps the mid to upper 30s in the typical
cold hollows of the Adirondacks. The unusually warm air mass left
over from today could be a limiting factor for patchy fog
development, but clearing skies should allow many of the
climatologically favored locations to radiate out effectively by
early tomorrow morning. Fog will be limited to the usual river
valleys, and likely will not develop until close to the pre-dawn
hours.
Tomorrow, temperatures will continue to be on the mild side with
highs in the mid to upper 70s. High pressure will keep skies clear
with generally light winds. A nudging low-level jet across northern
New York, and channeled flow in the Champlain Valley could lead to
some breezy conditions up to 10 to 15 mph, however, most of the
region should remain on the calmer side. Good vertical mixing to the
surface should result in low relatively humidity values in the 30-
40% range in the deeper and wider valleys of the region. Fire
weather concerns will increase into midweek as high pressure remains
overhead and breezy northerly winds begin to increase tomorrow
night. Winds will shift to the north with effective channeling in
the Champlain Valley. Winds should increase up to 10 knots with
gusts gradually increasing towards 20 knots by Tuesday morning. Some
clouds will build from the south as a backdoor cold front slides
through the area with enhanced mid-level moisture and a tightening
thermal gradient. Overnight lows Monday will be dependent on the
northward extent of this cloud cover, with clearer areas cooling
efficiently into the lower 40s and locations under clouds remaining
warmer into the upper 40s and 50s. With the increased winds and
cloud cover, fog is not anticipated Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 159 PM EDT Sunday...Tuesday will feature the start of a cooling
trend behind the Monday night cold front. Highs will be a touch
above normal, despite northerly winds, in the mid to upper 60s to
near 70. Northerly winds through the Champlain Valley will continue
to be breezy with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots possible. Dry surface
conditions will also continue with high pressure overhead and good
vertical mixing throughout the day, relative humidities will in the
30-40%, with lower values in the St. Lawrence Valley. Winds will
remain gusty in the Champlain Valley through Tuesday night. Cooler
air will continue to pour into the region from the north Tuesday
night with lows falling below 40 in most locations. Overnight
temperatures in the low 30s, to perhaps the upper 20s in the usual
cold hollows are certainly possible. Some frost will be possible
across the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Note our frost/freeze
products will end across the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom on
Wednesday as this is the climatological end to the growing season.
So while we may not issue products for frost in those areas, frost
conditions will still be possible, with products continuing in other
portions of the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 159 PM EDT Sunday...High pressure builds down from the north on
Wednesday, bringing a colder airmass. The cold air advection will
come from strong northeasterly winds, something that is relatively
uncommon. The high will sink south almost directly from the north
and the tropical systems well to the southeast will help strengthen
the favorably oriented pressure gradient. While relative humidities
should stay above critical values, the stronger winds will cause
some fire weather concerns, most notably on Wednesday when gusts
will reach the 15-25 mph range. The high pressure will settle
overhead going into the end of the weak, so winds will diminish a
bit, but enough low-level flow may prevent ideal radiational cooling
conditions at night. Temperatures should still drop into the low 30s
in many areas Wednesday night and Thursday night, with temperatures
in the upper 20s possible in the coldest hollows. This should cause
frosts and freezes in many areas, though continued winds in a few
places may limit frost formation a bit. The high pressure will
remain over the region going into the weekend but warmer air will
begin to wrap around it, and southerly flow will also develop as its
center passes to the east, so temperatures will rise back above
climatological normals. Frost freeze chances should end after Friday
morning as well.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions will persist through the
evening. Patchy fog will develop later in the night. It will likely
reach MPV and SLK for a bit of a time, but it may not be consistent
and instead go in and out a few times. The fog lifts by mid-morning
and VFR conditions will persist for the rest of the day. Winds will
become more westerly and northerly this afternoon, before going
mostly terrain driven tonight. Winds will switch back to southerly
tomorrow. Gusts up to 15 KTs are possible this afternoon, before
they become much lighter this evening and into the day tomorrow.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Myskowski

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion