White Shield, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

979
FXUS63 KBIS 030300
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Well above normal temperatures continue through Friday, with
  highs mostly in the 80s.
- Windy with high chances for rain, heavy at times, across
  southwest and central North Dakota Saturday night into Sunday,
  with medium chances northwest.
- A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible
  across south central into eastern North Dakota late Saturday
  afternoon through Saturday night.
- Much cooler for the first half of next week, with highs mostly
  in the 50s and lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
- Medium chances for a hard freeze across much of western and
  north central North Dakota by Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
The forecast remains on track. Scattered showers continue to
pass over the Turtle Mountains area, with thunderstorms now
having shifted into southwest Manitoba. Additional light showers
or sprinkles could develop across the far north overnight as
mid level impulses continue to round the top of the ridge.
UPDATE
Issued at 841 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
A low amplitude shortwave has initiated an area of scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms in north central North
Dakota. This activity should continue to move eastward and exit
the forecast area later in the evening.
UPDATE
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Isolated showers have developed along a low level convergence zone
extending from near Bottineau to Richardton. No lightning has been
observed as of this writing, and very little, if any measurable
precipitation is likely reaching the surface given high cloud bases.
The stray showers are likely to dissipate near or shortly after
sunset, but could linger in the Turtle Mountains area into the
overnight hours. Some CAMs show additional light shower activity
streaming along the international border overnight. Did add a slight
chance of sprinkles to the forecast to address this.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
An upper level ridge across Eastern CONUS has lead to increased
heights over the Northern Plains. Therefore, warm above normal
temperatures continue across the region today. High temperatures
are forecast to sit in the 80s this afternoon. Overnight
temperatures are forecast to drop down into the 50s.
Friday will also be a very warm day as the top of low level
thermal ridge passes across the southern half of the state.
Thus, high temperatures Friday across the south are forecast to
be in the mid to upper 80s while the north will see
temperatures in upper 70s. Southerly return flow Friday will
bring forth breezy conditions across the southeast and south
central.
The upper level ridge will continue progress eastward toward the
end of the week, while a broad upper level trough deepens out
over Western CONUS progressing into the Central Plains. The CSU
machine learning program has low probabilities for isolated
severe weather Friday and Saturday. Forecast soundings Friday
show increased instability around 1000-1500 j/kg of MUCAPE and
30 to 40 kts of 0-6 km shear. However, there is a pretty impress
cap that will likely hinder storm development Friday. We will
have to see if the forcing mechanism, the upper level trough,
reaches the area to align with the greatest instability. If
convection does form it will likely be elevated with damaging
winds and large hail being the main threats.
The aforementioned upper level trough is forecast to move across
the Northern Plains this Saturday through Sunday bringing
widespread precipitation to North Dakota. Moderate to heavy rain
could lead to localized street flooding. The NBM has around 50
percent of 1 inch of rain in the south central up to Devils Lake
Basin. The NBM probabilities have increased from the last two
runs increasing the size of the area that could see up to an
inch of rain. Heavy rain is certainly possible with this system
as PWATs are around 1 to 1.3 inches. The NBM even has some low
probabilities around 15 percent for 2 inches of rain. This
system will bring in slightly below normal temperatures back to
the region Sunday and Monday before warming back up to near
normal by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 959 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible to the
north and east of KMOT this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected through the forecast period. Most of western and
central North Dakota will see light southerly winds through
tonight, with direction more variable in the northwest. On
Friday, winds will become easterly to southerly around 10-15
kts, with some higher afternoon gusts at KJMS and surrounding
areas.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Hollan

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion