Wilbur, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

919
FXUS66 KMFR 281746
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1046 AM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...Updated AVIATION discussion for 18Z TAFs...
.SYNOPSIS...
We`ll see stronger southerly winds today with some gusty
conditions in the Shasta Valley, east of the Cascades and higher
terrain along the coastal range. Temperatures will trend rapidly
lower by Monday as a cold front and upper level low moves in.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Smoke has settled into our higher populated regions over the last
12 hours or so as westerly winds push smoke into Grants Pass and
Medford. It has been notable how thick the smoke has been with
Grants Pass airport reporting visibilities down to 1.5 miles
yesterday evening, which is pretty unhealthy air.
Things will switch up today as stronger southerly to south
westerly flow begins ahead of the next cold front. We`ll see that
smoke vector to the north east and impact the city of Roseburg
through the day. Air quality will improve in Medford and Grants
Pass with this southerly wind flow.
In addition to the smoke clearing out, the winds will be strong
and gusting up to 45 mph in the Shasta Valley and some of the
elevated locations east of the Cascades. In addition, winds will
be about 40 knots at 2000 feet Sunday night into Monday morning
along the coast, so some spotty power outages are possible as this
is the first punch in the change of seasons. 45 mph wind gusts can
bring moderate impacts blowing around small objects, although in
all my years here, it is usually minor impacts, especially east of
the Cascades. There is some fire weather threat here as well as
conditions are still quite dry, although humidities shouldn`t be
that low and above red flag criteria.
Eventually, the rain will arrive Sunday night along the coast.
The rain will push inland through the day on Monday with
precipitation becoming notably lighter the farther the front
moves eastwards. Brookings could see up to 1.5 inches of rain
while Medford and Roseburg could observe just a few hundreths
through the day.
As we progress into Tuesday, models are still showing a strong low
undergoing cyclogenesis well to our west in the Pacific with the
MSLP low right around 970-980mb according to ensembles and
deterministic models. This low will send an occluded front into
the region with another round of rain and strong winds hitting the
coast. The coast will see around 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain with
areas west of the Cascades seeing up to 0.25 inches. It looks like
we`ll see a drying trend with temperatures in the mid 70`s to
lower 60`s towards the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...28/18Z TAFs...IFR ceilings at Brookings and MVFR
ceilings at North Bend remain under persisting marine stratus. This
layer looks to lift this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold
front. The front is expected to bring MVFR ceilings as well as
rainfall tonight into Monday morning. Rain may locally lower
ceilings and visibilities as well as obscure elevated terrain.
Smoke from the Moon Complex remains in west side valleys. As winds
turn southerly, visibilities have improved at the Medford terminal.
These southerly winds are expected to bring enough smoke to lower
visibilities at the Roseburg terminal, with MVFR to IFR levels
possible through this evening. Visibilities should clear at Roseburg
by early Monday morning, with rainfall reaching the Umpqua Valley
near the end of the TAF period.
Other inland areas look to remain at VFR levels through the TAF
period, with gusty winds developing in the Shasta Valley and across
areas east of the Cascades. -TAD
&&
.MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Sunday, September 28, 2025...Seas
will remain below advisory level overnight into Sunday afternoon.
Then, an approaching front will bring gusty southerly winds, with
steep to very steep and hazardous seas from early this evening
into Monday morning. A Gale Watch has been issued for late tonight
into Monday morning for the outer waters. Active weather with a
second front Monday night into Tuesday could produce gales as well.
-TAD/Hermansen
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 400 AM PDT Sunday, September 28, 2025...
Southerly winds are the biggest concern today, especially in the
Shasta valley with sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph with gusts
around 45 mph. Humidities are not critical with min RHs in the mid
30`s perhaps some spots of upper 20`s in other valleys. In any
case, it is an area of elevated concern today ahead of the
incoming rain on Monday.
Fire weather risk should decrease dramatically closer to the coast
over the next few days with wetting rain. The rain totals won`t be
as pronounced farther inland, although the cooler and more humid
conditions should really dampen the fire weather threat elsewhere.
-Smith
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Monday for
     ORZ024-030-031.
CA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Monday for
     CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this
     afternoon to 8 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356.
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening for PZZ370-376.
Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Monday for
     PZZ370-376.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion