Wilcox, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

099
FXUS63 KGID 071124
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
624 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another pleasant day expected across the area today with
  highs in the 70s.
- Precipitation chances (15-40%) return late tonight into
  Monday. A few stronger storms Monday evening can`t be ruled
  out.
- Above normal temperatures expected Tuesday onwards with highs
  in the 80s.
- Off and on chances for precipitation (15-35%) Wednesday
  Onwards.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Today...
Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the 40s to low
50s under mostly clear skies. Aloft the area is under northwesterly
flow as troughing sits over the Great Lakes and ridging resides over
the Rockies. After a cool start to the day, temperatures are
expected to climb into the mid to upper 70s. Southerly winds will be
breezy at times west of Highway 183, gusting 20-25mph, but another
pleasant day is expected for the area.
Tonight through Monday night...
An approaching shortwave trough will aid in the development of
scattered showers/storms over eastern CO/WY. These showers/storms
are likely to form into a cluster as they move into the Plains
overnight. The developing low level jet will help to sustain this
cluster overnight, bringing chances for rain to southern portions of
the area after midnight. Showers/storms are expected to gradually
exit southeastern portions of the area Monday morning.
Highs on Monday will depend on how extensive the morning
precpitation`s cloud shield is. Where cloud coverage is able to
erode, highs in upper 70s to low 80s are expected whereas more
robust cloud coverage confines highs to the low 70s. Winds will
be breezy on Monday ahead of the surface trough/cold front,
gusting 20- 30mph.
Additional thunderstorm development is possible during the late
afternoon-evening hours along the surface trough/dryline. There
remains uncertainty if capping will be overcome, as models vary in
this potential given the weak forcing. Additionally, more widespread
cloud coverage from morning convection could limit heating and
prevent the cap from breaking. If storms are able to develop, CAPE
values around 2000 J/Kg and shear around 30kts would support a few
strong to marginally severe storms.
Tuesday...
Ridging will begin to build over the area on Tuesday behind the
departing shortwave trough. Near-normal highs are expected, in the
low to mid 80s. This looks to be the Tri-Cities first day above 80
degrees since August 22nd! Temperatures Tuesday night will be
in the low 60s.
Wednesday Onwards...
Weak ridging to southwesterly flow will persist across the area
through the end of the forecast period as troughing sits over the
western U.S. Near to above normal highs are expected during this
period, in the 80s to low 90s. A few chances (15-35%) for
precipitation clutter the back half of the forecast as a series of
shortwave troughs move through this southwesterly flow aloft. The
details on these precipitation chances will become clearer as we get
closer.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR conditions expected through this TAF period. Southeasterly
winds shift to the south and increase during the mid-morning
hours. Sustained winds around 10kts are expected during the
afternoon, slightly stronger at KEAR where gusts increase to
15-20kts. Sustained winds around 10kts are expected overnight.
Few-sct mid-high level clouds are possible during the day.
Widespread cloud coverage arrives late Sunday evening/night as
storms move in from the west. The best chances for storms remain
south of the TAF sites so a PROB30/prevailing group was not
included.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion