Wilhoit, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

599
FXUS65 KFGZ 150344
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
844 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the Southwest will result in
seasonable temperatures, light winds, and mostly dry conditions
through the next few days. Showers and storms could creep back
into our forecast towards the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Daytime highs have rebounded nicely from the chilly
start to the day that many areas experienced this morning. With
high pressure settling across the Region, drier conditions will
keep overnight/morning low temperatures near freezing for many
localized locations. On the flip side, this pattern will slowly
bring our daytime highs up each afternoon through about the middle
of the week. By Wednesday, temperatures look to land 2-8 degrees
above normal for this time of year.
Towards the end of the week (Thursday and Friday), the ridge will
gradually push eastward and allow for moisture to funnel into the
state from a low sitting off the California Coast. Looking at
both GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance, PWAT values are forecast to
increase for Thursday and Friday, so we are seeing agreement on
the potential for precipitation to return to our CWA. If we do
see moisture move into the area, best chances will be along and
south of the Mogollon Rim on Thursday, before expanding more
westward on Friday. A lot can change between now and the end of
the week, so check back later for updates and more details.
One other item worth mentioning, there is a 10-20% chance of
showers across the White Mountains starting as early as Tuesday,
but impacts should be minimal at best.
&&
.AVIATION...Monday 15/06Z through Tuesday 16/06Z...VFR conditions are
forecast. Light and variable winds overnight will become
southwest at 5-15 kts on Monday.
OUTLOOK...Tuesday 16/06Z through Thursday 18/06Z...VFR conditions
are expected. Look for a 10-20% chance of -SHRA/-TSRA south of a
KSOW-KSJN line on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Winds
southwest to west at 5-15 kts each day, becoming light and
variable during the overnight periods.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Mostly dry with near average
temperatures. Afternoon winds southwest through west 5 to 15 mph
with minimum RH from 10-25% each day. A 10-20% chance for showers
and thunderstorms in the White Mountains each day.
Wednesday through Friday...Precipitation chances return through
the end of the week. A 10-20% chance for showers and thunderstorms
in the White Mountains Wednesday, with chances increasing and
expanding westward to include areas along/south of the Mogollon
Rim through Friday. Daytime winds out the west through northwest 5
to 15 mph Wednesday shifting southwest Thursday and Friday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion