Wilmeth, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

105
FXUS64 KSJT 212355 AAA
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
655 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with a
  slight risk for severe storms along and north of I-20.
- Temperatures trend hotter today into Monday, then should be
  cooler by the middle of next week, along with additional
  precipitation chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Hot and fairly humid air over the region with dew points into the
upper 60s throughout the CWA. CAMs continue to indicate shortwave
moving through the WNW flow aloft with storms popping up in the
21-22Z time frame, mainly north of I-20. SPC has upgraded this
area to a slight risk and this looks reasonable with plenty of
shear and modest instability. There is some warm air aloft, but
looking at forecast soundings, the warming combined with the high
dew points will overcome this, at least over areas mentioned.
Skies will clear tonight and winds decreasing, especially across
the south. May see some patchy fog develop in some lower valleys,
but kept out of the forecast for now. Drier air moves in for
Monday with dew points dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s
with some lower to mid 50s out west. This will lead to
temperatures warming up towards 100 degrees, but the heat will be
short lived as a nice cool down is expected in the long term.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Upper level high pressure over our area will begin to flatten on
Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will dive down out of
the Rockies and into the Plains. This will push a cold front into
our area Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Temperatures on
Tuesday ahead of the front will still be hot, with highs in the
mid to upper 90s. Highs will cool down into the 80s for Wednesday
and Thursday. Rain chances (40-60%) are highest on Wednesday when
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along the
aforementioned cold front. Models indicate upper level ridging
building back into the region for next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
The coverage of showers and thunderstorms has decreased and become
more isolated this evening in west central Texas. These showers
and storms were moving to the southeast, and will dissipate by
9 PM to 10 PM, if not a little sooner. The KBBD TAF site may
be briefly affected after 01Z, if the storm in Concho County
can hold together. Will monitor radar this evening and amend
this or any other TAFs as needed for TSRA. Cloud coverage
through late evening will decrease and expect generally clear
skies overnight. Some low cloud development is expected early
Monday morning over far southern and southeastern parts of our
area. Carrying MVFR ceiling at KJCT 11Z-15Z, with a scattered low
cloud group at KSOA and KBBD. Otherwise, mostly clear skies are
expected during the day Monday. By mid-to-late Monday morning,
south-southwest winds will increase to 12-14 knots at KABI and
KSJT, with gusts 19-21 knots. For our southern terminals,
expect south or south-southwest winds to increase to 8-11 knots
with some gusts 16-18 knots possible at times.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     74 100  75  99 /  20   0   0  30
San Angelo  71  98  72  98 /  20   0   0  20
Junction    69  95  69  96 /  10   0   0  10
Brownwood   70  97  71  97 /  30   0   0  20
Sweetwater  72 101  74  98 /  10  10   0  20
Ozona       69  94  70  95 /  10   0   0  10
Brady       70  94  71  95 /  20   0   0  10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...19

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion