Wilsey, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

756
FXUS63 KTOP 210810
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
310 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-The forecast contains several chances for rain/storms from today
 through Wednesday.
-A few strong storms could occur this afternoon in far eastern KS.
-Temperatures will be fairly seasonal through the forecast
 period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Prior to sunrise this morning, radar was showing scattered rain
showers in central KS where some isentropic ascent was occurring on
the nose of a nocturnal LLJ. Am expecting to see those showers
possibly expand in coverage as they move eastward into the forecast
area. Some lightning strikes will be possible with some instability
present, however, shear is very weak. Thus, no severe weather is
expected through the morning hours. Some additional development
could occur midday as an H5 shortwave trough axis rounds the base of
low pressure over the Upper Midwest, enhancing lift over the area. A
few stronger storms could occur in far eastern KS as instability and
shear increase this afternoon ahead of the wave.
A brief break in precipitation chances is forecast Monday as a low
amplitude mid-level ridge builds in between today`s mid-level wave
and another that will quickly dig southward out of the Pacific
Northwest region. As that next system evolves into a closed low over
the Rocky Mountains, surface low pressure will move through the
Central Plains and rain chances will increase Monday night and
Tuesday morning. Tuesday appears to bring the best potential for
widespread rainfall to the area. Have maintained POPs of 60-80%
through the afternoon. Rainfall totals are somewhat uncertain, given
some model variability. The NBM has a 40% chance for at least
one inch in and around Topeka, while LREF has closer to a 20%
chance, higher chances south of I-35.
Into midweek, models merge Tuesday`s closed low pressure system with
another lingering system over the Great Lakes region. The
merged low looks to slowly rotate around portions of the Midwest
for a few days. Each model has a slightly different idea of
where it will be centered, but either way, some lingering
showers, cloud cover and cool temperatures will likely be the
result for the second half of the upcoming workweek.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Fog potential and rain chances are the main aviation hazards
this period. Visibilities are likely to drop early this period
with a few hours of 1/2SM at KTOP/KFOE possible. Have included a
TEMPO group to account for that chance overnight. Then,
scattered rain showers are expected. Chances increase through
the morning hours with rain then likely to move east of the
sites by this afternoon.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion