Windthorst, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

632
FXUS64 KOUN 111136
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
636 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
- Becoming hot today lasting through the weekend with above
   average temperatures.
- Next chance for rain/storms Saturday night into Sunday across
   our west and north.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Becoming hotter today under a building upper ridge with above normal
temperatures.  All of our forecast area will see highs in the lower
to mid 90s which will be about 3-5 degrees warmer than climatically
normal for early September.
28
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
A persisting hot forecast Friday into the start of the weekend with
lower to mid 90s highs and south-southwest winds.  Well see sunny
skies at least on Friday.  Our upper ridging starts breaking down on
Saturday as a large amplitude trough across the western half of the
U.S. starts digging into the Southern High Plains.  It will be more
cloudy on Saturday with increasing mid to high level moisture coming
up from the southwest through the trough.  Saturday could be a
degree or two cooler than on Friday due to some potential cloud
cover. Energy from the first of a series of mid-level shortwaves
propagating through the trough could bring some rain with a weak
elevated thunderstorm into western Oklahoma late Saturday night.
Best chances for surface-based strong convection on Saturday would
be further west on the panhandles although can`t rule out a few of
them tracking into western Oklahoma as well.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
The main trough axis starts moving in Sunday with POPs increasing
across northern and west-central Oklahoma and parts of western north
Texas.  Northwest Oklahoma may remain unstable enough for a
thunderstorm although mostly rain precipitation, much of it enhanced
as well during the morning hours by a low-level jet. POPs across our
west will gradually decrease as Sunday afternoon progresses although
instability could be sufficient for a few afternoon thunderstorms as
well.  Models suggest an Omega blocking pattern in the upper flow
across the northern half of the country with very weak ridging down
and over the Southern Plains next week. The weak ridging will keep
our temperatures slightly above normal early next week.  Models also
suggest the upper low over the western U.S. of this blocking system
opening as a trough and start digging into the Central & Southern
Plains by mid-week bringing a return of rain/storm chances to our
area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
VFR conditions will continue with only mid to high level clouds
expected. Winds will remain from the south/southeast.
By tonight, a strengthening low-level jet will likely result in
low- level wind shear (LLWS) across northwest Oklahoma (KWWR).
Mahale
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  68  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         96  67  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  94  68  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           94  67  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     93  67  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         93  68  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...10

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion