Woodward, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

239
FXUS63 KDMX 061904
AFDDMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
204 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and dry weather continues through tonight, with lows in
  the upper 30s north and west, then gradual warming kicks in
  from Sunday into next week.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast
  between late Monday and Tuesday night. Severe weather is not
  anticipated.
- Temperatures rise even farther in the latter half of next
  week, with daily highs well into the 80s in most areas, and
  low (20-30%) rain chances returning around Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
The forecast remains quiet overall, with cool weather through
Sunday morning then a gradual warming trend through next week,
and rain chances returning at intervals beginning around late
Monday.
Currently cyclonic northwesterly steering flow covers most of
the region, with a shortwave trough swinging through the flow
over Minnesota and Wisconsin. This is generating some
stratocumulus clouds extending down into our service area, but
any associated sprinkles/light showers will remain well to our
northeast today. At the surface, modest northwest breezes are
helping to keep temperatures in the 60s throughout central Iowa.
Meanwhile a large, cool area of surface high pressure is
building down across the Dakotas and will spill into Iowa
tonight, centering right over us by sunrise Sunday. As the high
spreads in this evening winds will drop off and the clouds will
largely dissipate after sunset, resulting in mostly clear and
nearly calm conditions overnight. This will support efficient
radiational cooling and have maintained a low temperature
forecast in the bottom 25% of the guidance envelope, with Sunday
morning lows ranging in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Frost is not
included in the forecast, however, not only because lows remain
around 38 or above, but also due to the very dry conditions in
place.
From Sunday into Monday the surface ridge will steadily move off
to the east, bringing a return of southeasterly and then
southerly low-level flow across Iowa. Meanwhile the 500 mb flow
will become more zonal, promoting slow but steady warming with
highs climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s Sunday, then well
into the 70s on Monday. A broad mid/upper trough will then move
slowly eastward across the region between late Monday and late
Tuesday, with broad forcing for ascent generating thicker clouds
and bringing a return of rain chances mainly around Monday
night. The forcing is not overly strong however, deep-layer
shear is only predicted to be around 15-25 KT with modest CAPE
of less than 1000 J/kg mostly confined to western Iowa. This
scenario does not support severe weather, and in general more
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected with
PoPs capped at 50% for now due to uncertainties in timing and
location of rainfall.
On Wednesday and Thursday a deep-layer ridge will build across
the Midwest, with temperatures rising well into the 80s across
central and southern Iowa each afternoon. Some model solutions
generate spotty light QPF during this time frame, but given the
large-scale subsidence within the ridge overhead, have
maintained a dry forecast these two days. From around Thursday
night into next weekend, however, it appears the ridge will
become more flattened and perhaps shunt just a bit eastward,
allowing overtopping impulses to bring some potential for
additional rainfall and resulting in a return of low (20-30%)
PoPs to the forecast. This evolution will also likely lead to
a little more airmass modification and temperatures could
approach 90 degrees in a few southern areas at the end of the
week. The last few days have provided a sneak preview of autumn,
but it`s not here yet.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
VFR conditions are forecast through the 18Z TAF period. Modest
northwest breezes this afternoon will diminish this evening and
become light and variable overnight.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Lee
AVIATION...Lee

NWS DMX Office Area Forecast Discussion