Youngstown, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

697
FXUS63 KEAX 201654
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1154 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers across northern Missouri this morning. Scattered
  showers a possibly a thunderstorm this afternoon.
- Additional showers and storms possible overnight into Sunday.
- Unsettled weather pattern continues next week with multiple
  chances of precipitation through Thursday. Tuesday appears to
  be the only day with possible severe potential at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Early this morning, the upper level trough that has been the main
driver for the unsettled weather for most of the past week is moving
across Iowa. This has allowed light showers and an occasional rumble
of thunder to develop across northern Missouri. These showers will
persist across northern Missouri through the morning until the upper
level trough shifts northeast during the day today. In its wake,
quasi-zonal upper level flow will develop over the area. At the
surface, a weak surface trough will bisect the CWA. A few shortwaves
in the -quasi-zonal flow aloft may provide enough lift for scattered
showers and a few storms to develop. Showers/storms will be light
and severe weather is not anticipated with weak instability.
Otherwise conditions will be mostly cloudy today with highs in the
mid 70s to near 80. Late tonight into Sunday morning a stronger
upper level shortwave will drop into the central Plains. This
feature couple with a weak southwesterly LLJ nosing into the area
will allow scattered shower and thunderstorms to develop across the
area. Although, instability will be a little stronger with this
round of storms, on the order of 1000-1500J/Kg of MUCAPE, shear will
be weak which should keep storms well below severe thresholds.
During the day Sunday the upper level shortwave will traverse the
forecast area continuing widely scattered shower chances. highs
again will be in the mid 70s to near 80. Sunday night into Monday,
the upper level flow will remain quasi-zonal a LLJ will nose into
the southern CWA Sunday night into Monday morning continuing chance
PoPs across the southern CWA however, conditions should briefly dry
out Monday afternoon. Highs Monday will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s
The extended forecast looks to remain active as Monday night into
Tuesday a upper level trough will dig from the northern Rockies into
the western High Plains. This will force a surface cold front
through the area bringing another chance for widespread storms to
the forecast area. Tuesday night the upper level trough with a
closed low in the base will move into the area and stall. This
feature will remain anchored over the area though Thursday night
before finally shifting east Friday. This will continue unsettled
weather across the CWA through Thursday before conditions finally
dry out Friday. Highs Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 70s but
will cool into the low to mid 70s Wednesday and Thursday behind the
cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Increasing mid level moisture along and south of I-70 could lead
to an isolated shower this afternoon. Impact would be short
lived and localized, so have not included mention in TAFs.
Overnight tonight could see fog along and north of highway 36.
Rain chances increase shortly after 12Z Sunday as short wave
builds into the region from eastern KS. Could see MVFR ceilings
with precipitation, especially along and south of I-70.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...BT

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion