Zumbro, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

584
FXUS64 KJAN 221736
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Through Tuesday: Increasingly unsettled upper level flow will be
the main driver of potential weather impacts over the first half
of the week. For now, that regime is focused just north and west
of our area in a corridor from the Southern Plains through the
Ohio Valley, where there have been rounds of convection as close
as the Little Rock-Memphis area. There is low, but nonzero,
potential for some of this activity to clip our southeast AR and
northwest MS counties this afternoon or tomorrow afternoon.
However, the western periphery of a low level ridge will main
enough influence to keep showers and storms more in the
isolated/summertime variety across most of our area through
Tuesday.
Midweek: The pattern will begin to shift beginning late Tuesday
as an upper trough builds from the Great Lakes region into the
Mid- MS Valley and Southern Rockies. This will organize a weak
cold front that will slowly push across the area late Wednesday
into Thursday. Ahead of the front, a couple rounds of convection
are possible as it pushes across our area. Current timing
expectations suggest a round of showers and storms reaching our
AR/north LA/northwest MS areas overnight Tuesday into Wednesday,
but with the nocturnal instability minimum it may be on a
weakening trend as it arrives. Redevelopment would then be
possible later in the day Wednesday for areas further south and
east. This does mean there is a real chance appreciable rainfall
will "skip over" some of our area Wednesday before redeveloping.
Given increased forcing along the front and marginally strong
deep layer shear, there is a marginal threat for severe storms on
Wednesday with potential shifting southeastward through the day.
Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat. Convection is expected
to be progressive enough to avoid a flash flood threat,
particularly given dry antecedent conditions. But on the high end,
one or two spots could pick up closer to 3-4" of rain. Most areas
will see much less. /DL/
Late week through the weekend: Going into Wednesday night and
Thursday, the threat for severe weather will end, but persistent
cyclonic flow associated with trough passage will support
additional rainfall. The trough will shift east and be followed by
dry and milder air as we go into the weekend. Temperatures will
be near typical values for late September. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms,
resulting in brief ceiling and visibility reductions, will be
possible through the daytime Tuesday, though greater rain chances
are anticipated for Wednesday. Brief localized fog or low ceilings
are possible around daybreak Tuesday. The odds of any categorical
reduction was too low to include in the TAF for any given site at
this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  93  73  89 /   0  10  10  70
Meridian      68  93  70  91 /   0  10  10  50
Vicksburg     71  93  73  88 /   0  10  10  80
Hattiesburg   70  95  72  94 /   0  10   0  40
Natchez       70  92  72  90 /   0  20  10  80
Greenville    71  92  72  83 /  20  20  30  90
Greenwood     71  93  72  84 /  10  20  30  80
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
DL/EC

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion